Business History Betting on Taylor Swift or Who’ll Be Made Pope: The Past and Present of Prediction Markets

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A live mash-up between Business History and Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business.

On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket you can bet on just about anything – from Taylor Swift’s album sales to whether President Trump will say a certain word in a speech. Many people worry about these new prediction markets, but the concept is far older than some critics might think.

We go back centuries to Papal conclaves; hear about how counting drinking toasts stood in for political polling; and learn how the US government tried using betting markets to predict terrorist attacks.

The Hosts

Jacob Goldstein

Jacob Goldstein spent more than a decade as co-host of the Planet Money podcast. He's also the author of the book Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing, which the New…

Robert Smith

Robert Smith, co-host of the Business History podcast, is a Professor of Journalism at Columbia University and contributing host of NPR's Planet Money where he tells stories about how the…