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Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move.

Further Reading:

Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico

Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ

Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker

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The Hosts

Nate Silver

Nate Silver, co-host of the Risky Business podcast, is the founder and former editor-in-chief (2008-2023) of FiveThirtyEight, which was published by The New York Times, ESPN, and ABC News. FiveThirtyEight…

Maria Konnikova

Maria Konnikova, co-host of the Risky Business podcast, is the author, most recently, of The Biggest Bluff, a New York Times bestseller, one of the Times’ 100 Notable Books of…